Colonial Downs | Full Card Expert Selections
by Merv Huber-Calvo
LOST STORY (2) was a good second versus similar last time out, defeating Jump Ship in the process. JUMP SHIP (7) has been reliably good over the jumps in his last five starts, including a good third place finish here on opening weekend. ANTICIPATING (4) ran decently well in his only steeplechase effort, finishing a few lengths behind Hepcat, who came back to win here at Colonial on opening weekend.
TOP PICKS: 2-7-4-6
ALLERIA (8) has been a good third in each of her two most recent efforts since cutting back in distance, and looks to have the best speed figures in here by a good margin. SEDUCTIVE (2) should improve in her second start off the long layoff and also may appreciate the turn back in distance. NOT MY MONEY (4) was only beaten four lengths in a tough VA-restricted race and might offer value.
TOP PICKS: 8-2-4-1
AL (1A) has been on the shelf for a couple years but ran well in each of his two domestic jump races. PIK EM (4) ran well to be third at this level on opening weekend here against an arguably better bunch of horses. DAPPER DAN (2) has struggled to finish all of his races, but when he does he typically places well.
TOP PICKS: 1A-4-2-9
ZIPMAN (1) has been remarkably consistent at higher levels and takes a big drop in class today. DECADENCE (9) finished third in a good race at this level last out and should have more pace to run at today. JINGLE BELLS (12) was a good second at this level last time out but may get a less favorable pace scenario today.
TOP PICKS: 1-9-12-13
RUFFITUP BUTTERCUP (7) ran in a VA-restricted race last time out where she was overmatched, but catches a much softer field today. PLAY CHARADES (5) tired last time out at this level but may run better at today’s shorter distance. GENERAL DIRECTION (2) finished well in his debut but makes his first start in 8-months.
TOP PICKS: 7-5-2-9
MINISTER’S STRIKE (10) won at this level last time out and his closing style should like the added distance of today’s event. HIGH NOON RIDER (3) has the best speed figures and should be flying late as a deep closer. TWENTYTWENTYVISION (8) ships in from California where he has been putting up impressive speed figures.
TOP PICKS: 10-3-8-6
JAG (3) won versus tougher last out and should be very tough as he drops back into the conditioned claiming ranks. ROHRBACHER (6) makes his first since April and drops into the claiming ranks for the first time after good efforts at Tampa. CHARMN CHARLIE RAY (8) won the first race here on opening weekend and takes a measured step up in class today.
TOP PICKS: 3-6-8-5
MADAME ORBE (10) ships in from NY off a series of good works and is a half-sister to Divisidero, a multiple stakes winner on grass. QUEEN MEDB (8) has a case of seconditis, having placed in 4 of 6 lifetime starts. LASKA (2B) has closed ground in each of her two efforts and has a series of good works for her return to the races.
TOP PICKS: 10-8-2B-1
MASTER PLAN (9) most recently ran in jump races but prior to that had been collecting speed figures on the flats that would be competitive with this bunch. HEZA KITTEN (4) ran a deceptively good race last time to be fifth, beaten only two lengths, behind much better horses. DOTHAT DANCE (6) enters this race off a good effort versus similar at Laurel where he registered the highest last race speed figure.
TOP PICKS: 9-4-6-7
DOPO LAVORO (7) has a pair of second place finishes here at Colonial already this meet and think the stretch back out to 1-mile will be to his benefit. FLEDERMAUS (3) was also second at this level last time out where he earned the highest last race speed figure. BAYSIDER (10) takes a big drop in class after running deceptively well versus much better last out.
TOP PICKS: 7-3-10-12
Value Plays With Race Caller Jason Beem
Race 4 – #7 LIVE LIKE LARRY – Morning Line Odds: 10/1
Race 6 – #5 BALTIC ART – Morning Line Odds: 8/1