Colonial Downs | Full Card Expert Selections
by Merv Huber-Calvo
CHARLEY MOPS (7) got back to his winning ways last out on the cutback in distance and has shown an ability to string together consecutive victories in the past. THE ZIP ZIP MAN (3) won at this level last out in a gutsy effort over this turf course. ENASOIT (8) drops significantly in class after a couple of poor placings but his speed figures fit with the top end of this group.
TOP PICKS: 7-3-8-1
QUALITY H TWO O (5) showed flashy speed again last out before tiring and may be able to carry her speed a bit further on the quick turnaround. TRULY RED (1) makes her turf debut off a pair of in-the-money finishes, for a trainer that has been hot at this meet. FAIR WINDS (4) makes debut off a consistent workout pattern and has a strong female side of the pedigree.
TOP PICKS: 5-1-4-3
JUST CHILL OUT (3) closed some ground late in his debut to finish just over 7-lengths in a sprint race and should like the added distance today. AUDACIOUS QUALITY (1A) closed ground in his turf debut most recently and drops in class for today’s effort. DYNAFORM (5) was well bet in his debut but showed little; the added ground may be key today.
TOP PICKS: 3-1A-5-7
DOROTHYFROMDUBLIN (1) was much the best versus $16k claimers last out and finds any even softer bunch here; no reason not to expect another easy win. BEARSATLANTICMIST (2) was a big winner at the $8k claiming level two back and could bounce back in today’s race. LADY GREATNESS (4) flashed good speed last out in first start in 7-weeks and may last a bit longer with the tightener.
TOP PICKS: 1-2-4-7
RISK REVERSAL (5) led all the way until the end in last race, finishing a good second in a tough race at a higher level; should be tough on the drop in class. CELTIC MISSION (1) was just a couple behind the top pick in last race; that was his first start in three months and he stands to improve off that effort. FELLOW (11) has been third in each of his last two efforts, including at this level over this track last out.
TOP PICKS: 5-1-11-9
MAYBEYESMAYBENO (11) has run a couple deceptively good races at a higher level and could be a decent value play dropping in class in his third start off the layoff. SPETTACOLI (1A) finished ahead of the top pick last out and likely to be favored, but still looking for first win in the US. BAY HILL (2) has been placing poorly but his speed figures fit with the group, and this race looked primed for a price play.
TOP PICKS: 11-1A-2-10
SUNSET SUMMER (11) went off favored in a tough race at this level last out going a mile and should appreciate the turn back in distance to 5.5 furlongs. SEA CANDY (4) seems like another likely to like the cut back from a mile to 5.5 furlongs, with better races three- and four-back at the distance. PLAY CHARADES (1) was fourth at this level versus males last out after a troubled trip.
TOP PICKS: 11-4-1-3
CELEBRATION (6) was third at this level last out, beaten just two lengths by a very tough winner; he finds a somewhat softer group here. BLESSED ARION (2) looks very sharp breaking through the maiden ranks last out here a few weeks ago and finds a good spot versus winners in this spot. MISTER MAESTRO (4) seems likely to appreciate the return to turf in today’s race after a pair of races on synthetic.
TOP PICKS: 6-2-4-7
IRISHTOWN (1) ran an absolute clunker last out but his efforts prior to that were encouraging; he makes his turf debut and cuts back in distance for this. SAVE ME PAULA (4) has three in-the-money finishes from six starts and was running hard at the end last out. MR. HAND FULL (9) shows a couple sharp works in advance of his debut.
TOP PICKS: 1-4-9-11
Value Plays With Race Caller Jason Beem
Race 3 – #2 PERFECT DAYDREAM – Morning Line Odds: 20/1
Race 6 – #8 PROMISED – Morning Line Odds: 8/1