Colonial Downs | Full Card Expert Selections
by Merv Huber-Calvo
NORTH DAKOTA (4) makes his first start in nearly ten months but comes in for good connections, sports a nice pedigree, and could offer good value. ROCK ON KITTEN (5) makes his first start in ten weeks but comes in from the tough KY racing circuit with good speed figures. LUCKY MIKE (3) consistent runs good races and looks like the best early speed in this race.
TOP PICKS: 4-5-3-7
DARK LIGHTNING (8) sports a great turf pedigree, a half-sister to Chocolate Ride and Killer Graces, both multiple graded stakes winners. SECURE CONNECTION (7) was a good second at this level last out, closing ground on the winner. LA BABIA (1) debuts for Michael Matz and also has a good pedigree for the turf.
TOP PICKS: 8-7-1-2
DIVINE INTERVENTIO (3) has been on the shelf since March but if he is ready to go at first asking he has the right running style to take advantage of the hot pace scenario. BELLE TAPISSERIE (5) should appreciate the return to dirt, where he has run much better speed figures. WHATEVERYOUWANT (1) is the fastest early speed and has the best speed figures but seven-furlongs might be a bit further than he likes.
TOP PICKS: 3-5-1-2
FLIPPERY (3) looks likely to be the early pacesetter in a paceless race, and we saw a few winners steal races last weekend with similar circumstances. ROMANTIC MOMENT (6) won a tough race on opening weekend but faces tougher here and a more challenging pace scenario. GOIABA (5) got to the wire first last out, beating a couple in here.
TOP PICKS: 3-6-5-1
IANA (5) was a dominant winner last out at this level versus non-winners of 2 and takes a logical step up in class here. AFAR (10) tired late last time out but should appreciate the cutback in distance, should also offer value. PRINESS KILLMAIN (2) closed from well back to beat similar last time out.
TOP PICKS: 5-10-2-8
ATTA KID (1) was third versus similar last time out and has a running style which suggests the added distance of today’s race will be to his benefit. HERE’S TO MIKE (5) ran second in a key race last out, out of which both the first and third-place finishers have come back to run well here. DO WITH PRIDE (7) has run well twice since putting together consecutive victories earlier this summer.
TOP PICKS: 1-5-7-8
ZEN’S LAND (5) won a tough race at a similar level last out, a race from which several came back to run well. LAPANTALONES FANCE (9) also won at a similar level last out, with second-place finisher coming back to win her next start. CHARLIE MOPS (12) burned some money last time but still has the back class to compete with these types.
TOP PICKS: 5-9-12-10
HOMEOFTHE LOMBARDI (9) comes into this race off two visually impressive victories at Laurel, and now makes his turf debut. RHOMBUS (2) also comes into this race having won his last two, the most recent of which came here at Colonial at a similar level. LACROSTIX (7) was no factor last time but should like the cutback in distance to sprinting today.
TOP PICKS: 9-2-7-5
LUNAR IMAGE (1) was fourth, beaten less than 2-lengths, versus tougher last time out and may benefit from the drop in class. CHESS MASTER (9) seems to much prefer the turf to dirt, and figures in this race if you can forgive his poor dirt efforts. LA MAQUINA GRIS (10) was fourth versus tougher last out in his first start outside of New York and could definitely factor with this bunch today.
TOP PICKS: 1-9-10-7
Race Caller Jason Beem’s Value Plays
Race 6 – #3 BARIN – Morning Line Odds: 12/1
Race 7 – #ISMUSBEMYLUCKYDAY – Morning Line Odds: 15/1 ����