Colonial Downs Tip Sheet/Racing Analysis For Friday August 30th

Colonial Downs | Full Card Expert Selections

by Merv Huber-Calvo

Race 1

SKYDIVING (6) put in a good effort in his only jump race to date and comes into this race on a recent effort at Parx; looking for a candidate who can run late. SILVER CRESCENT (2) failed to impress last time out but could return to the better form he showed at Monmouth two back. KNOCKHOLT (5) also threw a stinker last time but preceded that with two solid runner-up finishes.

TOP PICKS: 6-2-5-8

Race 2

FAIR HAIRED BOY (12) showed no early speed in debut but closed ground late to be beaten less than four lengths versus better, now drops in for tag. PALMETTO BLUE (10) exits that same race and finished ahead of the top pick after showing more early speed. ALFRED (2) was well beaten as the favorite in debut at Monmouth and looks for a mulligan in this race.

TOP PICKS: 12-10-2-4

Race 3

AV A WORD (3) ran well off the layoff to be third last out, having closed ground throughout the race but outkicked at the wire; should improve in second start off layoff. FIRST FRIDAY (1A) was second in a quickly run race last out and also stands to benefit in his second start off the shelf. QUERRY HORSE (5) was beaten a whisker last week at this level after closing fast down the stretch; quick turnaround.

TOP PICKS: 3-1A-5-2

Race 4

HE’S NO BULL (2) was fourth in a good first-level allowance on opening weekend; he tired late in that effort and should benefit from shortening back up to seven furlongs. IRISH COLONEL (1) flaunts the best recent speed figures, was second at a higher level last out, and starts for hot connections. DELINQUENT (4) hasn’t raced since November of last year but was last seen breaking through maiden ranks in Florida; he is one of only two in here not in for the tag.

TOP PICKS: 2-1-4-5

Race 5

LONG KEY (3) approaches her debut off a couple bullet works and sports a nice pedigree. COLERAINE (13) was far behind the winner last out but only a couple lengths behind the runner-up and may offer value in second start. ALWAYS SOMETHING (8) exits open maiden races and finds a softer bunch in this Virginia-restricted race.

TOP PICKS: 3-13-8-7

Race 6

KIKINBOY (1) was second versus a tough bunch at the $16k claiming level last out and now drops in for $10k. BOMBONERO (5) was third at this level when racing wide, after breaking through the non-winners of two races level two back. CONQUEST FALCON (3) was a close second versus tougher two back here at Colonial and has been in good recent form.

TOP PICKS: 1-5-3-2

Race 7

WETUMKA (5) faced much better last out and tired towards the end of the race, but takes a big drop in class here and shortens up. HAIKU (4) was overmatched last out but ran well two-back here to be fourth, beaten two-lengths, in a paceless race. ELEVEN IT IS (10) was a solid third versus tougher company last out after adding blinkers.

TOP PICKS: 5-4-10-6

Race 8

TAKIN IT EASY (2) has been very consistent lately despite facing tougher company in her two most recent outings than what she finds today. THUMP (14) perked up with the move to grass racing and most recently was third at this level at Monmouth. LADY KIM (4) takes a measured step up in class off two consecutive wins at Presque Isle, and has run well on turf in only previous start over the surface.

TOP PICKS: 2-14-4-5

Race 9

SENTRY (1) exits some much tougher races at Saratoga where he ran some impressive speed figures; he looks the best on paper but figures to also be heavily bet. COUNTY COURT (10) was a surprise winner of a very tough first-level allowance here on opening weekend and a similar strong effort puts him right in the mix here. POSITIVIST (4) also exists a strong race here and he may appreciate the slightly shorter distance.

TOP PICKS: 1-10-4-2

Race 10

OPTICAL ILLUSION (3) was a fast closing fourth at a higher level last out and should be tough on the drop into the $10k level. BARREL OF STOUT (5) was also closing quickly last out versus tougher to finish second in a race at Delaware Park. IFEELGOOD (13) was third last out, finishing ahead of the top pick, and a similar effort makes him one to consider.

TOP PICKS: 3-5-13-11

Value Plays With Race Caller Jason Beem

Race 6 – #4 KIERAND – Morning Line Odds: 10/1

Race 7 – #9 SPETTACOLI – Morning Line Odds: 12/1